🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."